7 News/Suffolk University Poll results

BOSTON -- Democrat Barack Obama (49 percent) leads Republican John McCain (44 percent), with just over one week to go in the Florida Presidential Election, according to a poll released today by 7NEWS Miami (WSVN-TV) and Suffolk University.

"Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by a slim margin," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "Our Florida bellwethers may be telltale signs of the race tightening even further." In both Florida bellwethers of Hillsborough and Monroe Counties, Obama and McCain were deadlocked at exactly 42% each.

Statewide, Obama led McCain 46 percent to 45 percent among those very likely to vote but was crushing McCain 60 percent to 40 percent among those who had already voted.

The majority of those choosing a candidate have made up their minds. A whopping 91 percent said their mind was made up while just 8 percent of indicated that they might change their mind. Of those voters who may change their mind, Obama led 58 percent to 37 percent, but of those who had made up their mind, Obama only led 51 percent to 49 percent.

"John McCain still has an opportunity to close the gap among those self identified voters who may change their mind in the next seven days. The question is whether he will close the margin or flip the state entirely from blue to red."

Overall, voters are more comfortable with Barack Obama as president. Some 48 percent of Florida likely voters statewide said they would be extremely or very comfortable with Obama compared to 43 percent for McCain. Similarly, just 29 percent said they were not at all comfortable with Obama compared to 35 percent for McCain. However, among those undecided for president, only 19 percent were not at all comfortable with McCain while 31 percent were not at all comfortable with Obama. This may signal an anti-Obama sentiment among those who say they are undecided.

The Republican National Committeee's expenditure of $150,000 for clothes and fashion accessories for their Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin was not a concern for the majority of likely Florida voters. However, of those concerned about the revelation, 54 percent said that they were more likely to vote for the Obama-Biden ticket, 13 percent were more likely to vote for the McCain-Palin ticket, 3 percent were more likely to support third-party candidates, and 28 percent said that the issue would have no effect on their vote.

Respondents said they trust Obama more than McCain, 48 percent to 45 percent. This is consistent with the 7NEWS/Suffolk University September poll which showed a 45 percent to 44 percent lead for Obama.

The top issues on the minds of Florida were economy/jobs (46 percent), moral values (12 percent), terrorism (10 percent), taxes (9 percent), healthcare (8 percent), and the Iraq War (7 percent).

Barack Obama continues to win the perception game highlighted by the national map of red and blue states. When asked who would be the next president, regardless of their personal preference, 60 percent said that they thought Obama, while just 31 percent said McCain.

In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries, and, when in agreement with the statewide Suffolk polls of the respective states, were 100 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted Thursday October 23, 2008, through Sunday, October 26, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 600 is +/- 4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the Florida statewide survey were likely voters. There were 303 respondents each from the bellwethers of Hillsborough and Monroe counties respectively, identified separately from the statewide poll. Marginals and 125 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site - www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on Monday, October 27, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

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Suffolk University, located on Boston's historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study. Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity.

NUMBERS:

N= 600 100%

North .......................................... 1 ( 1/ 94) 129 22%

Central West ................................... 2 89 15%

Central/Central East ........................... 3 180 30%

South .......................................... 4 202 34%

START

Hello, my name is __________ and I am conducting a survey for 7NEWS/Suffolk (

SUFF-ick) University and I would like to get your opinions on some political

questions. We are calling Florida households statewide. Would you be willing

to spend three minutes answering some brief questions? (or someone in that

household). Are you currently registered to vote?

N= 600 100%

Yes - continue ................................. 1 ( 1/101) 600 100%

No ............................................. 2 0 0%

GENDR

RECORD GENDER

N= 600 100%

Male ........................................... 1 ( 1/104) 285 48%

Female ......................................... 2 315 53%

S2

S2. Thank You. How likely are you to vote in the Presidential Election on

November 4th?

N= 600 100%

Very likely .................................... 1 ( 1/105) 469 78%

Somewhat likely ................................ 2 32 5%

Already voted .................................. 3 99 17%

Not very/Not at all likely ..................... 4 0 0%

Other/Undecided/Refused ........................ 5 0 0%

Q1

Q1. And how are you registered to vote - Democrat, Republican, or

Unaffiliated/Independent/Undeclared, or something else?

N= 600 100%

Democrat ....................................... 1 ( 1/108) 249 42%

Republican ..................................... 2 220 37%

Unaffiliated/Independent/Other ................. 3 131 22%

Not registered yet ............................. 4 0 0%

Q2

Q2. What is your age category?

N= 600 100%

18-25 .......................................... 1 ( 1/109) 28 5%

26-35 .......................................... 2 37 6%

36-45 .......................................... 3 84 14%

46-55 .......................................... 4 148 25%

56-65 .......................................... 5 144 24%

66-75 .......................................... 6 105 18%

Over 75 ........................................ 7 50 8%

Refused ........................................ 8 4 1%

Q3

Q3. Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?

N= 600 100%

White/Caucasian ................................ 1 ( 1/110) 442 74%

African-American ............................... 2 78 13%

Asian .......................................... 3 2 0%

American Indian ................................ 4 6 1%

Hispanic (Mexican, Spanish) .................... 5 66 11%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 6 3 1%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 7 3 1%

Q4

Q4. Which of the following best describes your religion - Roman Catholic,

Protestant, Baptist, Methodist, Jewish, Muslim, other, or non-religious?

N= 600 100%

Roman Catholic ................................. 1 ( 1/111) 177 30%

Protestant ..................................... 2 135 23%

Baptist ........................................ 3 90 15%

Methodist ...................................... 4 24 4%

Jewish ......................................... 5 28 5%

Muslim ......................................... 6 0 0%

Other (DO NOT READ) ............................ 7 92 15%

Non religious (DO NOT READ) .................... 8 30 5%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 9 24 4%

Q5

Q5. Which one of the following issues matters most in deciding your vote for

president?

N= 600 100%

Taxes .......................................... 01 ( 1/112) 56 9%

Education ...................................... 02 19 3%

Iraq War ....................................... 03 41 7%

Terrorism ...................................... 04 59 10%

Economy/Jobs ................................... 05 277 46%

Moral Values ................................... 06 73 12%

Healthcare ..................................... 07 50 8%

Other .......................................... 08 17 3%

Undecided ...................................... 09 8 1%

Refused ........................................ 10 0 0%

Q6

Q6. There are 14 candidates for President on the Florida ballot. Of these, the

major 5 candidates are: Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama,

Libertarian Bob Barr, Green Party Cynthia McKinney, and Ecology Party Ralph

Nader {NAY-der}. At this point, for whom will you vote?

N= 600 100%

John McCain .................................... 1 ( 1/114) 259 43%

Barack Obama ................................... 2 282 47%

Bob Barr ....................................... 3 0 0%

Cynthia McKinney ............................... 4 0 0%

Ralph Nader .................................... 5 2 0%

Undecided ...................................... 6 41 7%

Refused ........................................ 7 16 3%

Q7

Q7. Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the

election?

N= 543 100%

Mind made up ................................... 1 ( 1/115) 496 91%

Might change ................................... 2 43 8%

Undecided ...................................... 3 4 1%

Refused ........................................ 4 0 0%

Q8

Q8. As of today, who are you leaning toward?

N= 57 100%

John McCain .................................... 1 ( 1/116) 2 4%

Barack Obama ................................... 2 9 16%

Bob Barr ....................................... 3 0 0%

Cynthia McKinney ............................... 4 0 0%

Ralph Nader .................................... 5 2 4%

Undecided ...................................... 6 32 56%

Refused ........................................ 7 12 21%

Q6 & Q8 CONSOLIDATED

N= 600 100%

John McCain .................................... 1 ( 1/114) 261 44%

Barack Obama ................................... 2 291 49%

Bob Barr ....................................... 3 0 0%

Cynthia McKinney ............................... 4 0 0%

Ralph Nader .................................... 5 4 1%

Undecided ...................................... 6 32 5%

Refused ........................................ 7 12 2%

Q9

Q9. Which of the following reasons explains your vote for John McCain: is your

vote more of a vote FOR McCain, more of a vote FOR Sarah Palin, or more of a

vote AGAINST Barack Obama?

N= 261 100%

More of a vote for McCain ...................... 1 ( 1/117) 185 71%

More of a vote for Palin ....................... 2 9 3%

More of a vote against Obama ................... 3 56 21%

Other .......................................... 4 8 3%

Undecided ...................................... 5 3 1%

Refused ........................................ 6 0 0%

Q10

Q10. Which of the following reasons explains your vote for Barack Obama: is

your vote more of a vote FOR Obama, more of a vote FOR Joe Biden, a vote

AGAINST McCain, a vote AGAINST Sarah Palin, or a vote against George Bush?

N= 291 100%

More of a vote for Obama ....................... 1 ( 1/118) 209 72%

More of a vote for Biden ....................... 2 6 2%

More of a vote against McCain .................. 3 36 12%

More of a vote against Palin ................... 4 10 3%

More of a vote against Bush .................... 5 21 7%

Other .......................................... 6 5 2%

Undecided ...................................... 7 4 1%

Refused ........................................ 8 0 0%

Q10A

Q10A. Does it concern you that the Republican National Committee bought $150,

000 worth of clothes and fashion accessories for Vice Presidential nominee

Sarah Palin?

N= 600 100%

Yes ............................................ 1 ( 1/119) 226 38%

No ............................................. 2 350 58%

Undecided ...................................... 3 24 4%

Refused ........................................ 4 0 0%

Q10B

Q10B. How will this revelation affect your vote - will it make you more likely

to vote for the McCain-Palin ticket, more likely to vote for the Obama-Biden

ticket, more likely to support third-party candidates, or have no effect on

your vote?

N= 226 100%

More likely to vote for McCain-Palin ........... 1 ( 1/120) 29 13%

More likely to vote for Obama-Biden ............ 2 122 54%

More likely to support third-party candidates .. 3 6 3%

Have no effect on your vote .................... 4 63 28%

Undecided ...................................... 5 6 3%

Refused ........................................ 6 0 0%

Q11

Q11. Overall, which candidate do you trust more - Barack Obama or John McCain?

N= 600 100%

Obama .......................................... 1 ( 1/121) 289 48%

McCain ......................................... 2 271 45%

Undecided ...................................... 3 38 6%

Refused ........................................ 4 2 0%

Q12

Q12. Regardless of how you would vote, how comfortable would you be with

Barack Obama as president?

N= 600 100%

Extremely comfortable .......................... 1 ( 1/122) 206 34%

Very comfortable ............................... 2 86 14%

Somewhat comfortable ........................... 3 131 22%

Not at all comfortable ......................... 4 173 29%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 5 4 1%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 6 0 0%

Q13

Q13. Regardless of how you would vote, how comfortable would you be with John

McCain as president?

N= 600 100%

Extremely comfortable .......................... 1 ( 1/123) 151 25%

Very comfortable ............................... 2 105 18%

Somewhat comfortable ........................... 3 128 21%

Not at all comfortable ......................... 4 208 35%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 5 8 1%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 6 0 0%

Q14

Q14. Which of the following comes closest to your opinion of the upcoming

Presidential election:

N= 600 100%

It's the most important election of my life .... 1 ( 1/124) 218 36%

It's very important but not the most important . 2 297 50%

It's no different than any other presidential .. 3 79 13%

election

It's not really that important to me ........... 4 6 1%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 5 0 0%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 6 0 0%

Q15

Q15. Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as

president?

N= 600 100%

Approve ........................................ 1 ( 1/125) 140 23%

Disapprove ..................................... 2 420 70%

Undecided ...................................... 3 36 6%

Refused ........................................ 4 4 1%

Q16

Q16. When all the votes are counted in November of 2008, who do you think will

be our next President? (Not necessarily who you are voting for but who do you

think will be the next President?) - Barack Obama or John McCain?

N= 600 100%

Obama .......................................... 1 ( 1/126) 361 60%

McCain ......................................... 2 188 31%

Undecided ...................................... 3 49 8%

Refused ........................................ 4 2 0%

Q17

Q17. Has anyone in your household ever served in the U.S. military?

N= 600 100%

Yes ............................................ 1 ( 1/127) 275 46%

No ............................................. 2 313 52%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 3 10 2%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 4 2 0%

Q18

Q18. Does anyone in your household belong to a labor union?

N= 600 100%

Yes ............................................ 1 ( 1/128) 88 15%

No ............................................. 2 496 83%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 3 14 2%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 4 2 0%

Q19

Q19. In the 2004 presidential election, did you vote for:...

N= 600 100%

John Kerry - Democrat .......................... 1 ( 1/129) 242 40%

George Bush - Republican ....................... 2 274 46%

Ralph Nader - Reform ........................... 3 14 2%

Did not vote (DO NOT READ) ..................... 4 55 9%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 5 5 1%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 6 10 2%